What Drives U.S. Gasoline Prices

This analysis provides context for considering the impact of rising domestic light crude oil production on the price that U.S. consumers pay for gasoline, and provides a framework to consider how changes to existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions might affect gasoline prices. Given the likelihood of continued growth in domestic crude production, and the recognition that some absorption options, such as like-for-like replacement of imported crude oil streams, are inherently limited, the possibility that a relaxation of current policy limitations on crude exports might affect domestic and international markets for both crude oil and products, particularly gasoline, is an important issue. EIA's analysis of the factors affecting U.S. gasoline prices is twofold. The analysis first considers the relationship between U.S. spot gasoline prices and international and domestic spot crude oil prices, represented by Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), respectively. The second part of the analysis focuses on the interrelationship of U.S. and worldwide gasoline prices and the extent to which global gasoline prices are important in determining U.S. gasoline prices. This analysis takes into account regional and global gasoline supply/demand balances and arbitrage, as well as how the competitive advantage of U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refineries is changing the dynamics of U.S. regional and global gasoline pricing.