Uncertain Horizons

This thought-provoking exploration examines the multifaceted risks confronting Gulf countries in the 21st century. Despite their immense wealth and strategic importance, these nations face a complex web of challenges threatening their stability and future.

The Gulf states have traditionally relied on hydrocarbon wealth and strategic alliances, particularly with the United States, to ensure security. However, this model is increasingly strained. Trillions spent on American protection and billions on advanced weaponry haven't delivered meaningful security. Instead, these nations find themselves in a precarious geopolitical balancing act.

Their rapprochement with Israel has alienated Arab populations sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, straining regional relations whilst leaving them vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. The ambiguity surrounding potential Israel-U.S. conflicts with Iran further complicates their security calculations, potentially making the Gulf a battleground.

Economically, the global shift towards clean energy poses an existential threat to the Gulf's hydrocarbon-dependent economies. Whilst some diversification efforts exist, progress remains uneven, and the transition to a post-oil future uncertain.

Climate change compounds these challenges. Rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and extreme weather threaten the region's habitability, from saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies to potential population displacement.

The book explores multiple scenarios for the Gulf's future: gradual decline into irrelevance, catastrophic regional conflict, or successful adaptation through economic diversification and sustainable environmental strategies.

Ultimately, the Gulf's future remains uncertain. Current leadership choices will determine whether the region overcomes its challenges to emerge as stable, resilient actors in a changing world, or succumbs to the mounting pressures threatening its very existence. This analysis challenges readers to consider the difficult questions that must be answered for the region's survival.

The authors, Bernard Badie and Chedli Mustapha are two French entrepreneurs who have been based in the Gulf for several years. This book is the result of their collaboration and shared experience. It will be of interest to anyone interested in the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, from economic, environmental or geopolitical perspectives.