The Mathematics of Virus Spread For Beginners

Will there be a second wave in the fall? Or, is COVID-19 on its way out, as some models predict? There is still a lot to learned about this virus, but working through this brief text will help you understand the models being developed in real time, as they become more and more refined. While these models don't always predict the future in great detail, they do contain considerable truth content. Understanding how these models work will promote understanding at that level. The text is 12 short chapters, each with one basic idea, culminating with a very simple explanation of the SIR model used by leading epidemiologists around the world. Throughout the text we use original methods to give the reader very powerful insight into how a virus spreads. These methods are only found here. This work was developed for Professor Truesdell's precalculus class at Niagara County Community College in the spring of 2020. His class worked through the whole text independently, and successfully. This content provides a nice bridge between a traditional precalculus course and the real world. If logarithms scare you, don't be afraid. This book can be read through successfully without logarithms. The engine that drives virus spread is explained here arithmetically. All a reader needs is a calculator and a little patience. With a little investment of time, the reader will go away informed and enlightened about this important area of public health.