Runway Incursion Severity Risk Analysis

Runway incursions are defined as the unauthorized presence of a vehicle, pedestrian, or aircraft on a runway. Identifying situations or conditions in which runway incursions are more likely to be severe can suggest policy implications and areas for future safety research. Previous work in this area focused on a narrative approach. This study seeks to examine runway incursions from a statistical perspective and provide insights into the broad trends underlying severity. This report analyzes 10 years of runway incursion event information. A variety of FAA data sources were used to provide information on the event itself, airport characteristics, and airport operations at the time of the incident. Weather information was also incorporated using automated weather readings from airports. The culmination of the analysis is a series of discrete choice models focusing on different sets of incident characteristics.