Mathematical Modeling with Probability

This book analyzes authentic decision problems in meaningful contexts that involve randomness. It uses basic probability concepts as well as probability distributions to model a wide range of scenarios that involve uncertainty. These include managing customer service phone lines, buying collision insurance, analyzing the pattern of space shuttle disasters, dealing with absenteeism, scheduling a health care clinic, and improving graduation rates. The contexts have been chosen to align with high school students' interests and/or demonstrate the broad applicability of mathematics. Embedded in each context is some decision so that students are introduced to mathematics as a decision-making tool. Throughout the book, students will make sense of problems, persevere in their solution, mathematically model real-world contexts, and use appropriate tools when necessary. A key aspect of this probability text is that students will simulate probabilistic situations with random number generators to develop intuition as to the nature of randomness.