Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia's Near Abroad

The case of Kosovo is distinct and does not represent a precedent for independence for separatist movements in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniestria, or Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper examines all five cases, with particular attention given to three factors for analysis: the intractability of each conflict, potential viability of the region as an independent state, and the impact of external influences. The results of this examination are presented in both matrix and narrative form. Overwhelmingly, it is the impact of external influences-the engagement of the international community-which has shaped Kosovo's situation, rendering it fundamentally different from the cases in Russia's near-abroad.