China Coup

An expert's take on how a coup in China could launch a transition to democracy. This short book predictscontrary to the prevailing consensusthat China's leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup d'etat mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end China's one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat and development banker Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and thenin the main body of the bookto explain why.Hisgripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature. Garside argues that under Xi's overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xi's rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that China's actions have provoked from the world's strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, Xi's rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save Chinaand themselvesfrom catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act.Garside's scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xi's rivalsmove against him.